在上一讲中我们提到英国经济学家凯恩斯的经济理论曾在经济学领域掀起了一场革命。他认为经济衰退是由对商品和服务的有效需求不足而引起的，政府可以对此采取措施，影响经济的发展。二次大战后各国政府纷纷接受这一理论，承担起对经济运作的责任。

今天我们要介绍一下经济学界对凯恩斯经济理论的不同看法。甚至在凯恩斯理论的鼎盛时期，也一直存在着对这一理论的争执。一九七六年获得诺贝尔经济学奖的美国教授弗里德曼就是持有不同看法的学者之一。

在听弗里德曼教授讲述他的观点之前，我们先来学几个他要在谈话中使用的英文词汇：

1 Keynesian orthodoxy 凯恩斯传统理论
2 monetary policy 货币政策，指一国中央银行对货币和信贷的调节管理政策。
3 easy money 低息贷款，银根松动
4 misinterpretation 曲解
5 Federal Reserve system 联邦储备系统

下面我们听一下弗里德曼教授对凯恩斯理论的不同看法：

In the first place the reason Keynesian orthodoxy came into so much favour was because of a widespread misinterpretation of the Great Depression. And it was widely interpreted as showing that monetary policy couldn't work. It was interpreted that way because of course all of the central bankers kept saying that they were engaged in very easy money and that the economy was declining in spite of them， their actions， and not because of their actions.

首先，凯恩斯理论之所以这样受宠，是因为广泛流传的对大萧条的错误解释。大萧条被普遍认为表明了货币政策的无效，因为所有中央银行官员都坚持说银根已经放得很松。尽管他们采取了行动，经济仍然衰退，而衰退并不是由于他们的行动造成的。

But we found that the situation was very different. Though in our opinion the Great Depression was not a sign of the failure of monetary policy as it was so interpreted， it was not a result of a failure of the market system as was widely interpreted， it was rather a consequence of a very serious government failure， a failure in the monetary authorities to do what they'd initially been set up to do.

但是我们发现的情况却非常不同。尽管我们认为大萧条并非如同它被解释的那样是货币政策失败的标志，它也不像人们普遍认为的那样是市场机制失败的结果。确切地说它是政府严重失败的后果，是货币管理当局执行当初建立它们这些机构时所赋予它们的职责的失败。

下面我们再完整听一遍弗里德曼的这段谈话。（略）

弗里德曼教授接下来进一步谈了凯恩斯理论的影响和他自己对这一理论的不同看法。他使用了这样一些词汇：

1 the effect 作用，影响
2 intellectual community 知识界，学术界
3 cut tax 减税
4 government deficit 政府赤字
 the House of Commons 议会下院