2．El Nino 厄尔尼诺现象

While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance, the Columbia University researchers say their method call predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance．That would be good news for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that El Nino can produce in various parts of the world.

Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate E1 Nino events dating back to 1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures．The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature．

The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C．Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said it “suggests E1 Nino is indeed predictable．”

“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods．”said Weare．He added that the new method “makes it possible to predict El Nino at 1ong lead times．” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said．

The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance．The 1997 El Nino, for example, caused an estimated$20 billion in damage worldwide, offset by beneficial effects in other areas, said David Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading England．The 1877 El Nino, meanwhile, coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China, prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said．

When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone．according to a 2002 United Nations report．

While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky．the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed．

E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February．The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.

The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible．

当某种预报方法限制了提前几个月预测1997年厄尔尼诺现象的时候，哥伦比亚大学的研究人员说他们的方法可以提前两年预测厄尔尼诺现象。这对全世界各地的政府、农民和其他寻求为厄尔尼诺带来的干旱和大雨做准备的人来说是一条好消息。

研究人员使用计算机把1980年和2000年之间的海面温度和后来的厄尔尼诺的发生联系起来，进而能够用更早的海面温度预计1857年的厄尔尼诺现象。研究结果刊登在最新的《自然》杂志上。

研究人员说他们的方法并不完美，但加利福尼亚大学的气象学家Bryan C．Weare说这种方法显示出厄尔尼诺是可以预测的，尽管他自己并没有参加研究工作。

Weare说“这会促使其他人去寻找更好的办法。”他补充说新的方法“使在提前很长的一段时间里预测厄尔尼诺现象成为可能。”其他的方法也使用海面温度，但他们没能回顾得那么久远，是因为缺少其他的资料，而这些资料在近几十年才能够获得。

预测太平洋的升温和降温有极其重要的意义。英国Reading的欧洲中级天气预报中心的David Anderson说：以1997年的厄尔尼诺为例，它导致了全球范围内约200亿美元的损失，在其他一些地区被良性影响抵消；1877年的厄尔尼诺与印度遭受的季风和饥荒同时发生，导致了印度和中国约四千万人丧生，结果刺激了季节性预报的发展。

根据2002年的联合国报道，1991和1997年厄尔尼诺爆发的时候，仅中国就有2亿人受到洪水的侵害。

然而小的厄尔尼诺预测还是难以捉摸的，如果新的方法被认可的话，对大型现象的预测至少应该被提前一年。

厄尔尼诺总是在4月和6月期间发展，在11月和2月之间达到高峰。气候总是在9月和12月之间变暖，并且每2年到7年出现一次。

尽管气温在年底的时候有可能微弱上升，新的预测方法预计未来两年不会出现大的厄尔尼诺现象。

★1).The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict E1 Nino a few months in advance． B．Wrong

★2).The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past EI Nino occurrences and sea-surface temperatures． A．Right

★3).The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EI Nino occurrences． C．Not mentioned

★4). Weare’s contribution in predicting E1 Nino, was highly praised by other meteorologists．C．Not mentioned

★5). According to a Chinese report, the flooding in China caused by E1 Nino in 1 99 1 and 1 997 affected 200 million Chinese people． B．Wrong

★6). It takes about eight months for El Nino to reach its peak． A．right

★7). A special institute has been set up in America to study E1 Nino． C．Not mentioned