14. When the economy is in a recession, overall demand for goods and services is low. If overall demand for goods and services is low, bank interest rates are also low. Therefore, if bank interest rates are not low, the economy is not in a recession.
The reasoning in which one of the following most closest parallels the reasoning in the argument above？
（A） If the restaurant is full, the parking lot will be full, and if the parking lot is full, the restaurant is full, so if the parking lot is not full, the restaurant is not full.
（B） If the fish is ready, it is cooked all the way through, and if it is cooked through it will be white, so if the fish is not white, it is not ready.
（C） If pterodactyls flew by flapping their wings, they must have been warm-blooded, so if they were cold-blooded, they must have flown only by gliding, if they flew at all.
（D） If you want to put in pleats, you will have to double the amount of material for the skirt, and that means you will have none left for the top, so if you put in pleats you will not be able to make the top.
（E） If economic forecasters are right, there will be infaltion, and if there is inflation, the governing party will lose the election, so if it does lose the election, the economic forecasters were right.
15. Twenty years ago the Republic of Rosinia produced nearly 100 million tons of potatoes, but last year the harvest barely reached 60 million tons. Agricultural researchers, who have failed to develop new higher yielding strains of potatoes, are to blame for this decrease, since they have been concerned only with their own research and not with the needs of Rosinia.
Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends？
（A） Any current attempts by agricultural researchers to develop higher-yielding potato strains are futile.
（B） Strains of potatoes most commonly grown in Rosinia could not have produced the yields last year that they once did.
（C） Agricultural researchers often find concrete solutions to practical problems when investigating seemingly unrelated questions.
（D） Wide fluctuations in the size of the potato crop over a twenty-year period are not unusual.
（E） Agricultural research in Rosinia is funded by government grants.
16. An ancient Payonioan text describes how an army of one million enemies of Pavonia stopped to drink at a certain lake and drank the lake dry. Recently, archaeologists discovered that water-based life was suddenly absent just after the event was alleged by the text and an account of the archaeological evidence, some students concluded that the events described really took place.
When one of the following is a questionable technique used by the students to reach their conclusion？
（A） making a generalization about historical events on the basis of a single instance of that type of event
（B） ignoring available, potentially useful counterevidence.
（C） rejecting a hypothesis because it is seemingly self-contradictory
（D） considering people and locations whose existence cannot be substantiated by modern historians
（E） taking evidence that a text has correctly described an effect to show that the text has correctly described the cause
17. Samples from the floor of a rock shelter in Pennsylvania were dated by analyzing the carbon they contained. The dates assigned to samples associated which human activities formed a consistent series, beginning with the present and going back in time, a series that was correlated with the depth from which the samples came. The oldest and deepest sample was dated at 19,650 years before the present, plus or minus 2,400 years. Skeptic, viewing that date of human migration into North America, suggested that the samples could have been contaminated by dissolved "old carbon" carried by percolating groundwater from nearby coal deposits.
Which one of the following considerations, if true, argues most strongly against the suggestion of the skeptics？
（A） No likely mechanism of contamination involving percolating groundwater would have affected the deeper samples from the site without affecting the uppermost sample.
（B） Not every application of the carbon-dating procedure has led to results that have been generally acceptable to scientists.
（C） There is no evidence that people were using coal for fuel at any time when the deepest layer might have been laid down.
（D） No sample in the series, when retested by the carbon-dating procedure, was assigned an earlier date than that assigned to a sample from a layer above it.
（E） No North American site besides the one in Pennsylvania has ever yielded a sample to which the carbon-dating procedure assigned a date that was comparably ancient.
18. Those influenced by modern Western science take it for granted that a genuine belief in astrology is proof of a credulous and unscientific mind. Yet, in the past, people of indisputable intellectual and scientific brilliance accepted astrology as a fact. Therefore, there is no scientific basis for rejection astrology.
The argument is most vulnerable to criticism on which one of the following grounds？
（A） A belief can be consistent with the available evidence and accepted scientific theories at one time but not with the accepted evidence and theories of a later time.
（B） Since it is controversial whether astrology has a scientific basis, any argument that attempts to prove that it has will be specious.
（C） Although the conclusion is intended to hold in all cultures, the evidence advanced in its support is drawn only from those cultures strongly influenced by modern Western science.
（D） The implicit assumption that all practitioners of Western science believe in astrology is false.
（E） The fact that there might be legitimate nonscientific reasons for rejecting astrology has been overlooked.
19. Amy McConnell is considering running for election against the incumbent, Gregory Lutz. If Lutz has a large campaign fund, then he is already far ahead, and McConnell will not run against him. If Lutz does not have a large campaign fund, McConnell will scrutinize Lutz’s record for any hints of scandal that she could use against him. Anything of a scandalous nature would increase McConnell’s chances of winning, and she would campaign for election. If Lutz has a clean record, however, McConnell will not run against him.
Given the information in the passage, which one of the following must be false？
（A） Lutz does not have a large campaign fund, and McConnell does not run against him.
（B） Lutz’s record contains items that would increase McConnell’s chances of winning, and she runs against him.
（C） Lutz’s record contains scandalous items, and McConnell does not run against him.
（D） Lutz’s record contains nothing that would increase McConnell’s chances of winning, and she runs against him.
（E） Lutz has a large campaign fund, and McConnell does not run against him.