49. Playing the Oil Card.
49、打石油牌
1. Washington and Tehran don't agree on much these days. But in their conflict over Iran's nuclear program, both seem willing to use oil as a political weapon.
1、华盛顿与德黑兰如今在许多方面自说自话，但在它们之间有关伊朗核计划的冲突中，双方似乎都愿意把石油当政治武器使用。
2. The U.S. believes that sanctions on Iran's energy exports might force Tehran to renounce its uranium-enrichment ambitions. Iran hopes its threats to withhold some or all of those exports will persuade the international community to back off.
2、美国认为，对伊朗的能源出口进行制裁或可迫使德黑兰放弃其铀浓缩的野心；伊朗则希望以威胁停止部分或全部石油出口来迫使国际社会作出让步。
3. If the two sides can't agree on who would be punishing whom by playing the oil card, the likelihood of diplomatic resolution may be even more remote than is commonly accepted.
3、如果双方不能在打石油牌到底是谁惩罚谁方面达成一致，外交解决的可能性会比一般所认可的更加渺茫。
4. One thing is certain: a substantial reduction in Iran's energy output would have a significant impact on global oil prices. Iran is the fourth-largest oil exporter in the world, behind only Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Norway. It sells more than 2.5 Million barrels a day and is believed to have about 10 percent of the world's proven reserves. Many analysts say a supply cut could combine with other market pressures to quickly drive prices up to $80 to $100 a barrel.
4、有一件事是确定无疑的：伊朗能源输出大量减少将对全球油价产：生重大的影响。伊朗是世界上仅次于沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和挪威的第四大石油出口国。它每天出售250多万桶石油，据信约拥有世界已探明石油储量的10%。许多分析人士认为，石油供给的减少可能与其它市场压力因素一起迅速驱动油价升至每桶80至100美元。
5. Is either side bluffing? Iran's threat to pull oil off the market is not an empty one, Iran's leaders—who want to visibly assert their defiance of the West, need domestic support for the regime, and divide international opinion—have only the country's energy exports with which to influence the outcome of the diplomatic conflict.
5、双方都在虚张声势地吓唬人?伊朗威胁断绝石油的市场供应并非虚言恫吓，伊朗领导人—他们要鲜明地坚持他们对西方的蔑视，需要闽内对政府的支持并分化国际舆论—只有国家的能源出口可资利用，去影响外交冲突的结果。
6. Of course, were Iran to completely cut off its oil supply, it would badly damage its own economy. In addition, a total shutdown would harm many of Iran's friends, though it would also increase oil income for those who are net exporters of oil (such as Russia and other OPEC members).
6、当然，如果伊朗完全切断其石油供应，将严重地破坏其自身经济。此外，完全停止石油出口会伤害许多伊朗的朋友，尽管这样做也会增加那些石油净出口国的收入(譬如俄罗斯和其他欧佩克成员国)。
7. But there are a number of incremental steps Iran can take that would rattle those who depend on affordable energy without sinking its own economy. If Iran cut 200,000 to 300,3000 barrels a day, oil markets would react not only to the fall in supply but also to fears of what Tehran might do next.
7、但伊朗可以采取许多渐进的步骤，让那些依赖价格可承受能源的国家惶惶不安，而保持自己的经济不至直线下滑。如果伊朗每天削减20万至30万桶石油出口，石油市场不仅会对供给下降有反应，而且还会对因担心德黑兰下一步可能做什么有反应。
8. The U.S. isn't bluffing either. Although Iran is a net exporter of oil, it is a net importer of refined products. Washington calculates that if it could cut off the supply of those products, including gasoline, Iran would be unable to build new refineries quickly enough to keep pace with growth in the country's demand, estimated at more than 5 percent a year. And a boycott of Iranian exports, it figures, would hurt Iran more than it would hurt the U.S.
8．美国亦非虚声恫吓。尽管伊朗是个石油净出口国，但它也是精炼石油产品的净进口国。华盛顿推测，如果它切断包括汽油在内的那些精炼石油产品的供应，伊朗没有能力足够迅速地建造新的炼厂，以满足预计每年高于5%的国内需求增长。抵制伊朗石油出口对伊朗的伤害比对美国的伤害更大。