金融世界 第十三讲
在这一讲中，我们就来看一看货币的价格也就是汇率到底是由什么来决定的。
我们知道，汇率是两种或两种以上货币之间的比价。最初，澳大利亚同世界上的许多国家一样，实行的是固定汇率制。澳洲广播电台金融节目主持人巴里克拉克对此作了解释。他在谈话中提到这样一些词汇：
1 fixed exchange rates 固定汇率2 Gold Standard 金本位制，以黄金为本位货币的货币制度，1819年英国首先采用，1929年后被大多数国家放弃3 Bretton Woods system 布雷顿森林货币体系，1944年7月在美国新罕布什尔州布雷顿森林举行了联合国家货币金融会议，确定一盎司黄金等于三十五美元，其他货币与美元汇率在上下百分之一的幅度内浮动4 crawling peg system 蠕动钉住汇率制，布雷顿森林汇率制度瓦解后的一种汇率制度，只对汇率作少量调整，避免剧烈变动5 International Monetary Fund 国际货币基金组织
下面我们分段听一遍澳广金融节目主持人巴里克拉克的谈话和中文翻译：
Precisely because the exchange rate is such an exceptionally important price, many find it surprising, and even alarming, that it is allowed to fluctuate from day to day, from hour to hour, and even from minute to minute, according to the vagaries of market forces.
恰恰由于货币兑换率是这样一种特别重要的价格，允许它根据市场反复无常的力量每日每时甚至每分钟都上下浮动，使很多人感到惊讶甚至担忧。
Throughout most of the 19th century, and for part of the 20th century, the world economy operated on a quite rigorous system of fixed exchange rates, known as the 'Gold Standard'. Though the Gold Standard was abandoned during the Great Depression, a modified regime of fixed exchange rates was reinstated with the reconstruction of the international financial mechanism after the Second World War. This was known as the 'Bretton Woods system', presided over by the International Monetary Fund.
在整个十九世纪和二十世纪部分时期，世界经济是基于一种严格的固定汇率制度来运作的。这种制度称为“金本位”制。尽管大萧条期间金本位制被抛弃，二次大战后重建国际金融秩序时又恢复了一种较为温和的固定汇率制，称作“布雷顿森林制”，由国际货币基金组织掌管。
Even as late as the early 1980s, though the original Bretton Woods mechanism had by then essentially collapsed internationally, the Australian authorities were still attempting to manage the exchange rate under a so-called 'crawling peg' system, with the object of stabilising the price of the dollar.
甚至到了一九八十年代初，尽管那时原来的布雷顿森林制在国际上已经基本垮台，澳大利亚政府仍试图根据所谓的“蠕动钉住”制来管理货币的兑换率，以稳定澳元的价格。
But in December 1983, the then Federal Treasurer, Paul Keating announced the floating of the dollar.
但是在1983年的12月，当时的国库部长基廷宣布澳元自由浮动。
现在我们再完整听一遍巴里克拉克的谈话。（略）
那么，货币的价格不再由政府的中央银行决定之后，是由什么来确定呢？是由坐在交易所里面的货币经纪人来决定吗？美国斯坦福大学经济系教授安妮克鲁格说：
The major part of the story has to do with the market determining the exchange rate, but the market in itself is reacting to a number of underlying factors and those include how much is exported, how much is imported, what relative interest rates are, how much demand and supply, if you like, there is for the Australian or the US dollar relative to other currencies.
So it's a market determined rate and in that sense, what's happening in the trading rooms is that the traders are trying to figure out where the market is going. And for most purposes I think the evidence is that they do not have a great deal of influence in anything other than a little bit on the day to day side.
安妮克鲁格教授在讲话中提到这样一些词汇：
1 determine 决定2 underlying 基本的，潜在的3 export 出口4 import 进口5 demand 需求6 supply 供应
下面我们分段听一遍安妮克鲁格教授的谈话和中文翻译：（英文略）
决定货币价格的主要因素是市场，而市场本身又是对一些基本因素作出反映，包括出口有多少，进口有多少，相关的利率是多少，相对其他货币来说对澳元或美元的需求和供应有多少等等。
因此汇率是由市场来决定。货币经纪人在交易所里所作的只是要试图确定市场的走向。在很大程度上，我认为事实证明他们除了对每日的交易稍许有些影响之外，对汇率并没有太大的影响力。
接下来我们再听一遍安妮克鲁格教授谈话的原文。（略）
刚才美国斯坦福大学经济系教授安妮克鲁格说，汇率是由市场来决定，而市场本身只是对一系列基本因素如进出口数额等等的反映。有不少的人认为国际货币市场上的投机商能够决定或动摇某种货币的兑换率。关于这一点，曾获诺贝尔经济学奖的美国教授弗里德曼持有不同看法：
Well in a day to day term, the speculators can have some influence. But in floating exchange rate markets, speculators can only make money if they help to stabilise the market, not if they make it more unstable. And so, the exchange rate and the flexible exchange rate system are determined by two fundamental forces. One is trade, and second, by capital movements. If a country is an attractive place for foreigners to invest their funds, then that country will have a relatively high exchange rate. If it's an unattractive place it will be a relatively low exchange rate. But those are the fundamentals that really determine the exchange rate in a floating exchange rate system.
弗里德曼教授说，就每天的交易来说，投机商可能会有些影响。但是在浮动汇率市场上，投机商若要赚钱，只有帮助稳定市场而不是使市场更加动荡。因此汇率以及可变汇率制是由两大根本因素来决定，一是贸易，二是资本流动。如果一个国家能够吸引外国人去投资，那个国家就会有相对较高的货币汇率。如果它不能吸引投资，它的汇率就较低。
这是浮动汇率制度下真正决定汇率变化的根本因素。
现在我们再听一遍弗里德曼教授的这段谈话原文。（略）
在结束这一讲之前，我们把今天遇到的一些英文词汇复习一遍：
1 fixed exchange rates 固定汇率2 Gold Standard 金本位制3 Bretton Woods system 布雷顿森林货币体系4 crawling peg system 蠕动钉住汇率制5 International Monetary Fund 国际货币基金组织6 flexible exchange rate 可变汇率制
这次由澳洲广播电台 Radio Australia 中文部为您制作的金融世界节目到这里就结束，谢谢您的收听