Global warming may be twice as bad as feared

The impact of global warming could be twice as severe as the worst scenario feared by United Nations scientists, the world's largest climate-modelling experiment has shown.

Average temperatures could rise by 11C (20F) to reach highs that would change the face of the globe, researchers who have run 60,000 computer simulations of climate change said yesterday.

The conclusions suggest that forecasts by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may be much too conservative. In the worst case, the world would eventually heat up by almost double the maximum increase envisaged by the panel. The IPCC's latest report predicted that temperatures will rise by between 1.4C (2.5F) and 5.8C (10.4F) by 2100.

A world 11C warmer than it is today would be unrecognisable: while records show that the planet has been hotter than it is today for about 80 per cent of its history, there is no evidence that it has ever been more than about 7C warmer.

Although it would take hundreds of years for the full effects to be felt, the polar ice caps eventually would melt completely, causing sea levels to rise by 70m to 100m (230ft to 330ft). Coastal and low-lying cities such as London and New York would be submerged.

As the 11C figure is a global average, temperatures would be expected to climb even further in some regions.

David Stainforth, of the University of Oxford, the study's chief scientist, said: "When I start to look at these figures, I get very worried about them. An 11-degree warmed world would be a dramatically different world."

(By Ruth Gledhill, Times, January 27, 2005) 

世界上最大的气象模拟试验显示，全球变暖影响比联合国科学家们担心的最糟糕的情况还要严重两倍。

昨天（1月26日），使用6万台计算机模拟气候变化的研究者们说，全球平均气温可能会升高11摄氏度（20华氏度），高温将改变地球表面。

这些结论表明联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会对于的气候变化预测可能过于保守。最糟糕的情况是，全球温度最终将比该委员会预计的增长提高将近2倍。政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新报告预测，到2100年（全球）气温将升高1.4摄氏度（2.5华氏度）到5.8摄氏度(10.4华氏度)。

温度比现在高11摄氏度的地球将变的面目全非。虽然有记录显示在历史上80%的时间里，地球表面的温度都比现在高，但从没有比现在高出7摄氏度的。

虽然要几百年时间才能感受到升温对各方面的影响，极地冰帽最终将完全融化，使海平面升高70到80米（230到330英尺）。伦敦、纽约等沿海和低洼城市将被海水淹没。

（升温）11摄氏度仅是全球的平均数字，在局部地区升温幅度将更大。

牛津大学负责该项研究的科学家大卫·斯坦福斯说：“当我开始研究这些数据时，我非常担忧。温度比现在高11度的地球将是一个完全不同的世界。”

Vocabulary:

scenario : 特定情节，剧情

envisage : to consider or regard in a certain way（设想，想象）