Effective new drugs and screening would make hepatitis C（丙型肝炎） a rare disease by 2036, according to a computer simulation conducted by The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center and the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health. The results of the simulation are reported in the August 5 edition of the journal Annals of Internal Medicine. "Hepatitis C (HCV) is the leading cause of liver cancer and accounts for more than 15,000 deaths in the U.S. each year," said Jagpreet Chhatwal, Ph.D., assistant professor of Health Services Research at MD Anderson, and corresponding author on the study.

"If we can improve access to treatment and incorporate（吸收，包含） more aggressive screening guidelines, we can reduce the number of chronic HCV cases, prevent more cases of liver cancer and reduce liver-related deaths," Chhatwal said.

HCV -- a virus transmitted through the blood -- is spread by sharing of needles, the use of contaminated medical equipment, and by tattoo and piercing equipment that has not been fully sterilized. Those at the highest risk for exposure are baby boomers -- people born between 1945 and 1965. Widespread screening of the U.S. blood supply for hepatitis C began in 1992. A majority of people were infected through blood transfusions（输血） or organ transplants before 1992.

Baby boomers account for 75 percent of the estimated 2.7 to 3.9 million people infected in the United States. Half of people with the virus are not aware they are infected. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force now recommend a one-time HCV screening for this population group.

In this study, Chhatwal and his collaborators used a mathematical model with information from several sources including more than 30 clinical trials to predict the impact of new therapies called "direct-acting antivirals" and the use of screening for chronic HCV cases.

Researchers developed a computer model to analyze and predict disease trends from 2001 to 2050. The model was validated with historical data including a recently published national survey on HCV prevalence. Researchers predicted with new screening guidelines and therapies, HCV will only affect one in 1,500 people in the U.S. by 2036.