爱思英语编者按：2007年英国布里斯托尔大学的理查德·怀斯曼（Richard Wiseman）研究了3，000人，发现：制定新年计划的人群中，88%的人都失败了，虽然52%的人在一开始时感觉自己胜券在握。《今日心理学》援引了加拿大卡尔登大学的心理学教授蒂莫西·皮曲尔的看法认为：新年计划是一种“文化拖延症”，是人们彻底改造自我的一种尝试。

New Year resolutions: Be bold or forever forget them

As last year came to an end, Ms Faith Vata Musilu resolved to quit employment and start a clothing business by the end of 2013.

In February, she handed her employer a resignation letter and in July, boom — she started her own business, Faithlovely Fashions, and she is the chief executive.

Ms Musilu is among the lucky few who managed to see their New Year resolutions beyond the Easter holidays.

When Yvonne Kadesh, for instance, decided to turn into a vegan in 2013, she assumed it would be a walk in the park. But soon she found herself salivating as her friends were enjoying ice cream and goat ribs. She gave up.

“It was too much,” she says. “I abandoned the resolution on January 18.”

But why do people make resolutions year in year out and forget them in the second week of January?

CONFIDENT OF SUCCESS

A 2007 study by Richard Wiseman from the University of Bristol, UK, involving 3,000 people showed that 88 per cent of those who set New Year resolutions fail, despite the fact that 52 per cent of the study’s participants were confident of success at the beginning.

Men achieved their goal 22 per cent more often when they engaged in goal setting, while women succeeded 10 per cent more when they made their goals public and got support from their friends.

And according to researcher John Norcross and his colleagues, who published their findings in the Journal of Clinical Psychology, approximately 50 per cent of the population makes resolutions each New Year.

A  New Year’s resolution is a promise people make to start doing something good or stop doing something bad from the first day of the year.

ORIGIN UNCLEAR

The origin is not clear but according to Wikipedia, the ancient Babylonians made promises to their gods at the start of each year that they would return borrowed objects and pay their debts.

The Romans are also said to have begun each year by making promises to god Janus, after whom the month of January is named.

And in the medieval era, the knights took the “peacock vow” at the end of the Christmas season each year to re-affirm their commitment to chivalry.

Modern-day resolutions include things like improving one’s physical well-being by eating healthy food, losing weight, exercising more, drinking less alcohol, quitting smoking, not biting nails and getting rid of old bad habits.

Others touch on spirituality, finances, career, education, taking a trip, volunteering, getting along with people better, making new friends, spending quality time with loved ones and settling down, among others.

As for US President Barack Obama, his New Year resolution is to be nicer to press corps assigned to cover White House.

Photographers have particularly been complaining that they are not allowed to take pictures of the president with White House only releasing images that are “staged-managed” to create a certain impression of the First Family.

For Ms Musilu, her goal in 2014 is to grow her fashion business to a point where it can dress people of all walks of life from the president downwards. Already dating, she also wants to settle down in the coming year.

On her part, Ms Kadesh would want to better manage her finances in 2014 and start her fashion line.

UNATTAINABLE GOALS

Psychologist Chris Hart says most people set unattainable goals, which do not qualify as resolutions in the first place. “…like resolving to get married this year. Or win the lottery. Those aren’t resolutions. They’re wishes,” says Dr Hart.

“So only set goals that are totally within your control — practical, realistic and positive,” he says.

Ms Musilu says she had even resolved to meet President Kibaki and congratulate him on his good work on Kenya’s economy.

She achieved this two weeks ago, albeit nine months after Mr Kibaki left presidency.

But how did she do it? “(I was) just focused and determined that what others did I can do better,” she says. “The secret of achieving is to focus on one thing and stop being a master of everything. And also all is well when one discovers the reason for one’s existence.”

In the book A course in happiness, Italian author Frank Ra, argues that resolutions are more sustainable when shared, both in terms of with whom you share the benefits of the resolution, and with whom you share the path of maintaining your resolution.

“Peer-support makes a difference in success rate with New Year’s resolutions,” he says.

Ms Christina Lenjou, a Nairobi-based counselling psychologist agrees, saying that most people are too ambitious by setting too many resolutions.

BE SPECIFIC

“I advise people to choose one and focus on it and be specific,” she says. “This means that if you want to quit smoking in 2014, then you must say by which month. If it’s losing weight, also have the amount and duration.”

Psychology Today, quotes Timothy Pychyl, a professor of psychology at Carleton University in Canada, arguing that resolutions are a form of “cultural procrastination,” an effort to reinvent oneself.

People make resolutions as a way of motivating themselves, he says. He, however, contends that people are not ready to change their habits, particularly bad habits, and that accounts for the high failure rate.

On his part, psychology professor Peter Herman and his colleagues have identified what they call the “false hope syndrome,” which means their resolution is significantly unrealistic and out of alignment with their internal view of themselves.

This principle reflects that of making positive affirmations. When you make positive affirmations about yourself that you do not really believe, they not only do not work, but can damage self-esteem.

Dr Hart advises people to dream big, but make detailed plans.

“Write down your resolutions, and against each one make a note of the specific tasks you need to carry out to make them happen. With precise timings,” he says.

CHOOSE GOALS CAREFULLY

He, however, wants people to choose their goals carefully and make the hard choices in life.

“They just want it all,” he says. “Like saying they want to be wealthy — but also lusting after cars and new mobiles. You can’t do both at once! If you want to be rich, that means saving — and not having lots of nice things while you’re getting there.”

Ms Lenjou also says people must be ready to make some sacrifices if they want to succeed in achieving their resolutions. Most people, she says, want something to change yet they want to remain in a comfort zone.

“If your friend calls you to a pub where people smoke and your goal is to quit smoking then you must be ready to sacrifice that fun,” she says.

Experts say people refuse to attempt some resolutions owing to the perceived complexity and the agony of ceasing a habit. But it is not as complex.

STICK IT OUT

Dr Hart says it takes about three weeks to change a habit — and it is usually very difficult. Often people fail simply because we aren’t willing to stick it out.

“You’ll experience anxiety, disorientation, lapses in motivation and self-doubt. But they are all signs you’re making progress. And if you hang on, you just might make that New Year’s resolution come true,” he says.

Ms Lenjou echoes this, advising people to look at the bigger benefits that will accrue from achieving a resolution.

“Think ahead and say ‘if I quit smoking, then I’ll have a less congested chest, less coughs and fresher breath’. These can motivate you to pursue your decision,” she says.

On the flip side, though, the psychologist warns against just thinking about the fruits and failing to lay down the basics — the activities involved.

“You need to appreciate that this is a long journey and stop looking at just the results. You need to know that you must start, say, with reducing the number of cigarette sticks every week,” she says.

THE END RESULT

Dr Hart also advises people to focus on changing their behaviour, rather than the end result. So if you are dieting, do not weigh yourself every day. Concentrate, instead, on what you eat and how much exercise you are getting.

And structure things so that changes are easier. This may entail laying out your night clothes where they are easy to see and remind you to get to bed early.

To come up with feasible goals, Dr Hart says one needs to start with a review of what happened in their life during the past year.

He proposes a checklist: “Did you achieve what you set out to do? Are you healthier, happier or more successful than you were a year ago?

Do you like yourself more? Say ‘yes’, and you’re on track! But if you seem stuck, ask yourself what you need to do differently. After all, why would doing the same thing again get you any further?”

The other aspect of failed resolutions lies in the cause and effect relationship, according to Ms Lenjou.

You may think that if you lose weight, or reduce your debts, or exercise more, your entire life will change, and when it does not, you may get discouraged and then you revert to old behaviours.

REWIRE YOUR BRAIN

Making resolutions work is essentially changing behaviours and in order to do that, you have to change your thinking and “rewire” your brain, according to Psychology Today.

American brain scientists such as Antonio Damasio and Joseph LeDoux and psychotherapist Stephen Hayes have discovered, through the use of Magnetic Resonance Imaging, that habitual behaviour is created by thinking patterns that create neural pathways and memories, which become the default basis for your behaviour when you’re faced with a choice or decision.

Trying to change that default thinking by “not trying to do it,” in effect just strengthens it. Change requires creating new neural pathways from new thinking.

So have you made your resolutions for 2014?

二月，她向雇主递交了辞职信；七月，轰隆一声，她开创了自己的事业：费斯可爱时装公司，任行政总裁。

慕斯路女士是少数在复活节之后还能够继续执行自己新年计划的人。

再来看看伊冯·加低斯，当她决定在2013年成为纯素食主义者的时候，她以为会是闲庭信步一样简单。但是很快，当朋友们享用冰淇淋和山羊排的时候，她发现自己口水直流；她放弃了。

她说，“真太难了！一月十八日我放弃了这个新年计划。”

那么，为何人们每年都做出些新年计划，然后在一月的第二周就把它们忘得一干二净呢？

胜券在握

2007年英国布里斯托尔大学的理查德·怀斯曼（Richard Wiseman）研究了3，000人，发现：制定新年计划的人群中，88%的人都失败了，虽然52%的人在一开始时感觉自己胜券在握。

从事目标设定的男子达到目标的几率会提高22%。女子如果公开自己的目标且得到朋友的支持的话，成功率能提高10%。

研究者约翰·诺克斯（John Norcross） 及其同仁在《临床心理学期刊》上发表的研究结果表明：大约50%的人每个新年都有新计划。

新年计划是人们制定的在一年的第一天起要开始做的好事或要停止做的某些坏事。

暧昧的起源

新年计划的起源不是很明确，但是维基百科上说，古代巴比伦人在每年的开始向他们的神灵立誓说：他们要归还借走的物品和偿还债务。

据说古罗马人新年伊始也向雅努斯神许下诺言。而每年的一月就是依据该神命名的。

在中世纪，骑士们在每年圣诞季节结束之际要举行“孔雀誓言”典礼，再次承诺对骑士精神的坚守。

当代社会的新年计划包括了像增进健康有关的如健康饮食、减肥、增加锻炼时间、减少饮酒、戒烟、停止咬指甲和戒除一些老毛病坏毛病等。

还有的涉及精神、财务、事业、教育、旅行、做志愿者、与人相处、交新朋友、花更多的时间和关爱的人好好相处，以及结婚，等等。

至于美国总统奥巴马，他的新年计划是：要对白宫记者团好一点。

特别是摄影记者们，他们一直抱怨不能拍总统的照片。白宫只同意公布那些“摆拍”的照片，好营造美国第一家庭的某种形象。

对慕斯路女士来说，她在2014年计划把自己的时装事业发展成能为从总统到平民各行各业的人提供服饰的企业。她已经开始约会，且希望在2014年能结婚。

加低斯女士的新年决定是在2014年更好地理财, 以及开始自己的时装生产线。

目高于顶

心理学家克里斯·哈特说，大部分人设定的是达不到的目标，根本算不上新年计划。哈特博士说，“像在年内结婚、中彩票等。这些不是决定，而是愿望。”

他建议说，“新年计划的目标必须是可控的，实际的、现实的和积极的。”

慕斯路女士说她甚至决心要和齐贝吉总统会面，祝贺他在肯尼亚经济方面的好成绩。

她在两周前真的做到了。虽然齐贝吉先生已经离任九个月了。

但是她是如何做到的？“（我只是）集中注意力，坚信别人能做到的我能做得更好。”她说，“成功的秘密在于集中注意力做一件事情，且放弃面面俱到。还有就是当你找到自己存在的理由时一切就豁然开朗了。”

在《幸福一堂课》这本书中，意大利作家弗兰克·镭认为：与人分享的计划会更易于坚持；分享的人既可以是你将与其分享收益之人，也可以是你可与其分享坚持的人。

他说，“新年计划的成功率会受到同伴支持程度的影响。”

在内罗毕从事心理咨询的心理学家克里斯蒂纳·兰局女士同意以上看法，认为大部分人在设定新年计划时都胃口太大。

计划要具体

兰局女士说，“我建议人们选择一个目标，集中注意力于其上，并且具体化。也就是说，如果你的新年计划是在2014年戒烟的话，你必须说明在哪一个月完成。如果是减肥，你必须具体到减掉多少分量和要花多长时间。”

《今日心理学》援引了加拿大卡尔登大学的心理学教授蒂莫西·皮曲尔的看法认为：新年计划是一种“文化拖延症”，是人们彻底改造自我的一种尝试。

他认为，人们制定计划是为了激励自我。但是他断言：人们往往尚未准备好改变他们的习惯，特别是那些不良习惯；而这是新年计划失败率高的原因。

彼得·赫尔曼教授及其同事已经鉴别出他们称之为“虚假希望综合症”的心理状态；这意味着那些人的计划极为不现实且与他们内心中对自我的看法不一致。

这一原则反映了积极肯定的原则。当一个人对自己做出的积极肯定是自己都不能相信的那种时，那些肯定不仅无益，而且有害自尊。

哈特博士建议人们梦想可以宏大，但是计划要具体。

“写下你的各项计划，在每一项后面注明要实现该项计划你需要完成的具体任务，还要加上详细的时间安排。”

慎选目标

与此同时，他希望人们谨慎选择自己的目标且做出人生的抉择。

他说，“许多人什么都要。比如想要变有钱，但是对车子和新手机又垂涎三尺。鱼与熊掌不能得兼！如果你想要有钱，就得存钱。在达到目标前你不能买很多东西。”

兰局女士也说，要想达成自己的新年计划，你必须准备好做出牺牲。她指出：我们大部分人想要生活有变化，但同时又希望自己过得舒舒服服的。

她说，“假如你的朋友打电话让你去一家人人吸烟的酒吧，而你的目标是戒烟的话，你必须准备好牺牲去那个酒吧的乐趣。”

专家认为：人们拒绝尝试某些计划是因为那些计划看来很复杂，还有停止某个习惯带来的痛苦。然而实际上并没那么复杂。

坚持到底

哈特博士说，改变一个习惯大约需要三个星期，通常困难重重。往往人们失败的原因就在于：不愿坚持到底。

他说，“你会经历焦虑、迷惑、丧失动力以及怀疑自我。然而这些都是你取得进步的迹象。假如你坚持，你也许会实现自己的新年计划。”

兰局女士的看法类似。她建议人们把目光放在完成计划会带来的收益上面。

她说，“预见未来且告诉自己‘假如我戒了烟，那么我的胸闷和咳嗽会减少，口气会更清新。’这样做会激励你继续努力。”

另一方面，这位心理学家还提醒大家不要只想着果实，而忘了制定基本规划：达到目标需要的那些活动。

她说，“你必需理解：戒烟的道路是漫长的。你不能只盯着结果看。你必需明白：比如说，你必须开始每周都减少吸烟的数量。”

最终结果

哈特博士也建议人们把注意力放在行为上，而不是结果上。因此，假如你要减肥，不要每天称体重；相反，要把注意力放在你吃了些什么，你锻炼了多久上面。

根据为改变服务的原则来安排你的事物。比如，把你的睡衣摆在显眼的地方可以提醒自己早点睡觉。

哈特博士认为，要找到一个合适的目标，你需要首先反思自己过去一年的生活。

他提议使用一份清单：“你是否完成了年初的计划？较之一年前，你是否更健康、更快乐、或更成功？你是否更喜欢自己？如果答案是‘是’，你是走在正轨上。但是假如你感觉进退两难，你需要问自己有哪些事情要改。归根到底，重复同样的事情如何能够让你进步呢？”

在兰局女士看来，新年计划失败的另一原因在因果关系问题上。

你或许以为假如你成功减肥、或降低了债务、或者锻炼时间多了，你的整个生活就会改观。因此当实际情况不如人意的时候，你可能很泄气，然后就倒退会旧的行为模式。

给大脑重新接线

《今日心理学》认为，计划要成功最根本的是要改变行为；而要改变行为，你必须要改变思维，给大脑“重新接线”。

美国脑科学家如安东尼奥·达马西奥和约瑟夫·勒杜，以及心理治疗师斯蒂芬·海斯通过使用核磁共振成像技术发现：人的习惯性行为是由思维模式导致的神经通路和记忆造成的。这些神经通路和记忆在你面对选择或决定时是你行为默认的基础。

假如你想通过“不想这么做”来改变默认的思维模式的话，结果你只是在强化那种默认的思维。要真正改变，你需要通过新的思维模式来创造新的神经通路。

因此，你制定了自己2014年的新年计划了吗？