当地时间12月4日，2018年奥斯卡颁奖礼进入90天倒计时。官方公布了一支宣传视频，整个影片以混剪为主，包括《神奇女侠》、《变形金刚5》、《速度与激情8》、《银河护卫队2》、《敦刻尔克》、《美国制造》、《金刚狼3》、《蜘蛛侠：英雄归来》等今年上映电影的镜头。

值得一提的是，奥斯卡并没有避讳上一届最佳影片颁错奖的“乌龙”，而是大大方方地将这一情节剪辑在了短片之中，令人再一次回味了这一“历史性的时刻”。

本届奥斯卡颁奖典礼将于明年3月4日举行，依然由吉米•坎摩尔担任主持。虽然目前许多奖项的提名名单还没有公布，但随着颁奖礼的临近，各大媒体已经开始对本届奥斯卡的大赢家做出自己的预测和判断。

《敦刻尔克》、《华盛顿邮报》、《请以你的名字呼唤我》、《逃出绝命镇》等热门冲奖作品究竟谁的胜算更大，一起来看看BBC的分析吧。

Dunkirk
《敦刻尔克》

Christopher Nolan's World War II feature is probably just about the front runner for best film.
克里斯托弗•诺兰的这部二战题材电影可能就是最佳影片的领跑者。

For: Well-received by both audiences and critics, it tells a crucial slice of history.
支持：《敦刻尔克》讲述了一场重要的历史事件，深受观众和影评人喜爱。

Against: Although it picked up a best editing prize from the LA Film Critics Association, it was ignored by their New York counterparts. Could its momentum be waning?
反对：尽管该片被洛杉矶影评人协会评为最佳剪辑奖，但却没有受到纽约影评人的重视。它的势头会逐渐减弱吗？

Best chances: Best film and best director. Surprisingly, Nolan has never received a directing nomination from the Academy.
冲击奖项：最佳电影奖和最佳导演奖，让人意外的是，诺兰从未获得过奥斯卡奖提名。

The Post
《华盛顿邮报》

Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep in front of the camera, with Steven Spielberg directing a historic battle over press freedom - there's much for awards voters to admire.
汤姆•汉克斯和梅丽尔•斯特里普出演，史蒂文•斯皮尔伯格执导，这样一个为新闻自由而战的历史故事，有很多让评委刮目相看的地方。

For: The National Board of Review gave it their best film, actor and actress awards.
支持：美国国家评论协会将最佳电影、最佳男主角和最佳女主角奖颁给了这部电影。

Against: There was no love from the New York nor LA critics.
反对：纽约时和洛杉矶影评人协会都对该片无感。

Best chances: It's always hard to bet against Streep getting a best actress nomination, and Hanks is overdue for an acting nomination after missing out in recent years.
冲击奖项：很难相信斯特里普得不到最佳女主角提名，而汉克斯在销声匿迹几年后，早该获得一项表演类提名了。

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
《三块广告牌》

Frances McDormand giving an outstanding central performance as a grieving mother in this darkly comic story.
弗兰西斯•麦克多蒙德在这个黑色喜剧故事中扮演一位悲伤的母亲，展现了出色的核心表演。

For: It picked up the audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival, often a key awards indicator.
支持：该片在多伦多国际电影节上获得人民选择奖，这个奖项通常是一个重要的风向标。

Against: To some extent it's divided American audiences, perhaps damaging its hopes of winning best film.
反对：在某种程度上，《三块广告牌》分裂了美国观众，它赢得最佳影片的希望或许会因此破灭。

Best chances: Best film, and best original screenplay recognition looks certain, and Frances McDormand is currently the favorite for the best actress Oscar.
冲击奖项：最佳影片、最佳原创剧本奖项的提名应该是肯定的，而弗兰西斯•麦克多蒙德现在是奥斯卡最佳女主角奖的最热人选。

Call Me By Your Name
《请以你的名字呼唤我》

A tender love story between a teenager and an academic, set in Italy.
《请以你的名字呼唤我》背景设定在意大利，讲述了的一个少年和一个学者之间的柔情之恋。

For: The Los Angeles Critics Association gave it their top prize.
支持：洛杉矶影评人协会将其评为最佳影片。

Against: Strong in many categories, but without quite managing to be a front runner in any. Perhaps Timothee Chalamet's performance is its best chance of awards success.
反对：《请以你的名字呼唤我》在很多方面的表现都很不错，但却没有哪一方面是最突出的。也许“甜茶”蒂莫西•克莱门特的表演是该片冲奥的最大可能。

Best chances: A best film nomination looks certain. Darkest Hour's Gary Oldman is the favorite for best actor, but if anyone can beat him it's probably Chalamet.
冲击奖项：最佳电影提名应该可以肯定。参演《至暗时刻》的加里•奥德曼是最佳男主角的最热人选，如果说有谁能击败他的话，那可能就是克莱门特了。

The Shape of Water
《水形物语》

An otherworldly romance between a mysterious aquatic creature and a mute girl, played by Sally Hawkins.
影片讲述了一个神秘的水生生物和莎莉•霍金斯扮演的哑女之间超凡脱俗的爱情故事。

For: Since it premiered at the Venice Film Festival, it's being wowing audiences.
支持：该片在威尼斯电影节首映后，获得观众喝彩。

Against: It might be that bit too far from the mainstream to make a huge awards impact.
反对：影片可能太过非主流，不具有获得大奖的影响力。

Best chances: Sally Hawkins is only a fraction behind current best actress favorite Frances McDormand.
冲击奖项：在最佳女主角的最热人选弗兰西斯•麦克多蒙德面前，莎莉•霍金斯的获奖几率很小。

Get Out
《逃出绝命镇》

Chris Washington, played by London-born Daniel Kaluuya, is drawn into the sinister underbelly of a small American community.
英国演员丹尼尔•卡卢亚扮演的克里斯•华盛顿卷入到一个美国小镇的邪恶阴谋中。

For: A huge box office hit that could benefit from a slowly-changing Oscar voting demographic.
支持：影片可能会凭借出色的票房表现从缓慢变革的奥斯卡投票人群上获益。

Against: Opening so early in the year outside of awards season could hinder its chances.
反对：在颁奖季前一年早早上映可能不利于其冲奖。

Best chance: If there are nine or 10 best picture nominees, it could grab a spot. Jordan Peele's screenplay looks certain to be recognized.
冲击奖项：如果这届奥斯卡最佳影片的提名数有9或10部电影的话，那么《逃出绝命镇》能占一个。乔登•皮尔的剧本应该一定会被提名。

Darkest Hour
《至暗时刻》

Gary Oldman on blistering form as Winston Churchill.
加里•奥德曼饰演了愤怒的温斯顿•丘吉尔。

For: Oldman's seemingly effortless embodiment of the wartime leader has won almost universal
支持：奥德曼塑造的战时领袖丘吉尔收获一致好评，而这对他似乎是手到擒来的。

Against: It's not yet managing to win top honors from critics' groups.
反对：《至暗时刻》目前还没有被一所影评机构评为最佳电影。

Best chance: Oldman has been the favorite for best actor since the film's Telluride premiere.
冲击奖项：自从在特莱瑞德电影节首映以来，奥德曼一直就是最佳男主角奖项的宠儿。

The Florida Project
《佛罗里达乐园》

A child's eye view of life in a Florida motel community.
从一个孩子的视角，讲述佛罗里达州一家汽车旅馆社区的生活。

For: Strong reviews, and praise for the performances - particularly from the children at the centre of the story, and Willem Dafoe, who plays the manager of the motel where they live.
支持：影片演技大获好评，尤其是故事的主人公——那些孩子们，以及旅馆经理的扮演者威廉•达福。

Against: Could the film be seen as a film of great performances, rather than a truly great piece of cinema?
反对：可以把这部电影当作一部演技在线的影片，而不是一部真正伟大的作品吗？

Best chances: Dafoe is probably the current front runner for best supporting actor.
预测：达福目前可能是最佳男配角的领跑者。